SLV And PAAS

From May 5 on the SLV:

"The upside targets IN PLAY, listed on the chart, are Black Data Point #3, Black Data Point #1, and the measured move off the pattern breakout, respectively."

The 13.73 target, at Black Data Point #3, got MADE in yesterday's session.

After I miss a breakout, I usually stop watching the chart, like the AAPL breakout, at 103. AAPL pulled back to the breakout, but I wasn't watching it and missed a nice opportunity to play it.

The SLV might be gone on the upside, but if it pulls back to the 12.83-12.97 gap, or to the top of the Bullish Wedge, it might be a nice entry. I also have been considering Pan American Silver (PAAS) for a long.

For a long-term perspective, PAAS had an incredible rally of over 1,700% during the bulk of this decade. The rally ended with a H&S Top in 2008, and PAAS got clocked for a loss of 80% from its high. Notice how fast markets can come down during a Bear Market. It took only nine months for PAAS to give back five years' worth of gains.

PAAS went much lower than the H&S Top target. It finally bottomed in November, 2008 and has rallied over 100% since then. Technically, PAAS broke out of this Ascending Triangle (highs: 19.00 and 19.08) yesterday, but the volume was weak and although it closed above the breakout, it closed well off its opening high of 19.78.

The thin blue line is the "morph line" to watch, in case this Ascending Triangle "morphs" (changes) into a Bear Flag/Bearish Rising Channel. Another caution is the fact that PAAS is at the base of the Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical lines, which constitutes resistance. The top of the Kumo (Cloud) currently is 26.51.

But, interestingly, the Ascending Triangle target of 29.07 is just below the 29.54 - 29.41 neckline of the 2008 H&S Top, so there's some "head room" for a rally.


In the daily chart, PAAS formed a number of patterns coming off its November low. Most recently, it formed a Bullish Falling Wedge (pattern in black) that, as we've seen so frequently lately, "morphed" (changed) into a Bullish Ascending Triangle (the pattern in green) from which it had an upside breakout this week.

PAAS is too extended for a decent risk:reward setup, but if it pulls back to...

1. the 17.75 gap it left from the May 5 close
2. the top of the Ascending Triangle
3. the 200 Day Moving Average, currently at 17.63 and declining about six or seven cents each session

...I'll consider buying it.

NOTE: The highs of the Ascending Triangle are 18.14 and 17.94. The top of an Ascending Triangle should be "relatively flat." Those data points are disparate enough that it's arguably a Symmetrical Triangle, but it has the "look" of an Ascending Triangle, so I went with that.