Sunday, June 26, 2011

FCX - Triple Validated Resistance




My pre-market comment on the Yahoo FCX Message Board on Friday:

"The top of the Falling Wedge comes in today, June 24, at 49.536
The top of the Bull Flag comes in today, June 24, at 49.46.

A print of 49.54 would mean that, technically, both patterns have broken out again, but as we saw on Wednesday, FCX needs to hold the breakouts.

I consider it much more important to take out Wednesday's DOUBLE validated resistance high of 49.90, then 50.38, the high at Blue #4 in the Bull Flag.

FCX currently is BID: 49.44...ASK: 49.50, right near the pattern breakouts."

You see the reason for my comment in boldface: The open on Friday was 49.45, a penny below the two breakouts. The early high was 49.65, which was another "Fakeout/Breakout" (like June 22, which became DOUBLE validated resistance), then down she went, validating Black Trendline #1-#3 as TRIPLE resistance.

The Bears are very firmly in control, just as they were with QUINTUPLE validated resistance at Black Trendline #2-#4, in May (the five red arrows). Back then, while The Bears were successfully defending that trendline, The Bulls were building an Ascending Triangle from which they finally broke out on May 24.

Breakouts above validated resistance, particularly when a pattern breakout also is involved, usually has "some" significance. It did. The Ascending Triangle target of 52.28 got MADE on May 31 and the rally ended at Black Trendline #1-#3, which became the first validation of that trendline as resistance (high was 52.70).

The Bulls now have a chance to break out above TRIPLE validated resistance, with TWO upside pattern breakouts involved: The Bull Flag and the Falling Wedge. They don't need to do it right away, but the key numbers that The Bulls need to take out are:

1. 49.65 - The Triple Validated Resistance High
2. 49.90 - The Double Validated Resistance High
3. 50.38 - The High at Blue #4 in the Bull Flag

4 comments:

Mary said...

Excellent, Melf . . I could not ask for more clarity. You are the best.

Mary

jim said...

Appreciate your detailed comments. jc

Melf Elf said...

Good Morning, Mary and Jim,

It would be nice if this worked out the same way that it did at Quintuple Resistance back in May ;)

jim said...

We'll learn soon I suppose. Good Day Melf. thank you. jc