SPX and FCX

(Click on charts to enlarge. Click again for further enlargement. Use left back arrow on your browser to return to the narrative).

From June 2:

"Support at the bottom of the Falling Wedge comes in today 1303.85, but if The Bears take out the May 25 session low of 1311.80, that would put in a near-term Double Top: the May high of 1346.82 and the May 31 high of 1345.20, so that might be a problem for The Bulls if that May 25 low gets taken down."

The fact that The Bears were able to take down 1311.80 is as much of a problem for The Bulls as The Bears closing the SPX below the Falling Wedge. That's a pattern break, as well as a break of a validated trendline (see green arrow under May 23).

1311.80 is the intervening little pivot between the two shoulders of the "M"-Top, or Double Top (synonymous). For the downside target, I always use the more conservative of my two choices: 1346.82 and 1345.20.

1345.20 - 1311.80 = 33.40 points of downside from the 1311.80 breakdown.
1311.80 - 33.40 = Target: 1278.40 IN PLAY, as long as the SPX trades below 1311.80.

Friday's close also was a close below the Kumo (Cloud). When that occurred in March, The Bulls put in a "V" bottom, and rallied like gangbusters up through the Kumo. "V" bottoms aren't the norm. It seems that John Bollinger, years ago, did research that showed that about one-third of bottoms (or less) are "V"-Bottoms, with no retest. Don't quote me on that. It was many years ago (1980's?). Suffice it to say that they aren't the norm.



FCX opened on Friday at 48.90, almost smack on Trendline #2-#4. It violated the trendline early in the session, then rallied and took out Thursday's high, closing at 49.93. Those trendline violations are fine, as long as the stock recovers and gets going in the right direction. At the first two tests of resistance during QUINTUPLE Resistance, those candles went slightly above the trendline, but didn't do the stock any good. Friday's violation didn't do the stock any harm.

Intermediate-term, FCX currently is on the bearish side of neutral. It's neutral, inside the Falling Wedge. It's bearish, below the Kumo. Friday's successful retest of the trendline and the top of the Ascending Triangle, though, is short-term bullish.



This is a chart of the triple-threaded 8-13-21 RSIs, the fastest Fibonacci RSIs that I look at. The 3 red arrows are an example of what I mean when I say that signals that fail can be just as useful as signals that work out. Those signals were looking like a "sell" while the Ascending Triangle was forming below the Falling Wedge. When FCX broke out to the upside, some would say that "technical analysis doesn't work." It worked just fine. Those signals only told us that conditions were there for a "sell," but when the Quintuple Resistance got taken out...look out for some UPSIDE. The Ascending Triangle target of 52.28 got MADE in a hurry!

Currently, FCX got a bounce higher, out of Bullish Synchronicty, which occurred on June 1. That session was a big black candle coming off 52.70 resistance at the top of the Falling Wedge. The high of that session was was 51.87, so we needed a print of 51.88 in order for the RSIs to issue a "buy." That was a tall order and we didn't get it, but again, FCX held at the bottom of the Falling Wedge and is short-term bullish.