Thursday, March 19, 2009

IBM: Scalp - FAZ - In Freefall


I mentioned to Mark in the comment section that I traded IBM yesterday morning. I like to look for short-term scalping opportunities when a stock is indicated to gap on news. Yesterday, the WSJ reported that IBM was in talks to acquire JAVA. IBM was indicated Gap Down on the news. IBM had closed at 92.91 the prior session. It opened at 89.46, below the 90.45...90.45 lows of this Double Top, on heavy volume.

Knowing that the pattern was broken, I wanted IBM short for a quick scalp of a dollar if I could get it near the .618 retracement price of 91.59, if IBM rallied. I put in an order slightly below that, at 91.47, roughly two dollars above the opening price, and got filled on the quick rally off the open.

That worked out fine. Made $1,100 on it.

From yesterday morning on the FAZ:

"If the FAZ can successfully retest that low, the chart will be a Rectangle with similar highs and similar lows."

Freefall means "down she goes, and where she stops, nobody knows." The FAZ was so grossly oversold when it went into freefall, I "thought" that it could bounce out of nowhere and found it difficult to imagine that this broken Rectangle would play out, even when just before the noon hour, the retest failure of the 34.80 - 34.50 lows was apparent. The retest high (at the arrow) was 34.68 and the FAZ did a back flip off that resistance, and tanked.

I did not short it because I thought, "Be serious Ms. Market! The FAZ has come down from 115.50 on March 6 to 35ish, and you expect me to 'believe' that there's something like another TEN points of downside off this Rectangle's measured move?"

I forgot that Ms. Market told me a long time ago that Crashes/big moves occur from OVERSOLD conditions. I also forgot to LOOK and stop "thinking" or "believing" something. The pattern had broken, and the retest was a failure, and the morning low of 33.08 got taken down.

Are you paying attention YET, Melf? Slap! Slap! Slap! LOL.

5 comments:

Jegejig said...

Lol Melf,

Slap,slap,slap on me too.

SKF looked quite oversold already when it was near the 120.00/119.00 support too.

When support got taken out...

Now I'm looking at a possible test of 99.55 3 month low.

I wonder if it heads down even lower to 86.85 yearly low.

We shall see.

Happy trading and good luck (or I should say - continue to analyze well).

Thanks again for your work. :)

Melf Elf said...

jegejig,

Yeah, that was really something yesterday. Happy trading and good luck to you, too, buddy ;)

linus said...

melf
awesome call in faz low of 24 ( i like the methodology). jeg pointed me to this site few months ago.
thanks
linus

Jegejig said...

Linus,

I'm glad you checked out Melf's blog.

I learned a lot from him.

I look up to Melf as a mentor.

linus said...

yep jeg,
and melf seems brutally honest.
how many would post the screen shot on the blog.
today faz is at 34 and perhaps time to go long FAS, since faz could see 24 again. what do you say melf? xlf is 8.2. i watch xlf to make entry and exit in fas/faz.
linus