Sunday, March 1, 2009

Morgan: DOUBLE Failure - H&S Top

CORRECTION: In yesterday's post, I transposed the numbers for the neckline in the Goldman chart. It should be 87.30-87.50, NOT 78.30-78.50.

From Friday morning:
"I noticed that Morgan was trading at 22.65, right near the bottom of the broken Bear Flag (resistance), which came in yesterday at 22.765. On Wednesday, it filled the 22.93 gap EXACTLY (high was 22.92), and failed, now here it was back for another test of the broken Bear Flag!

I shorted Morgan right there, at 22.65"

The high in Morgan on Thursday was 22.80, within three and a half cents of the bottom of the Bear Flag, which was at 22.765. Notice how close these things often come to nailing gap fills and trendlines. Players know where these numbers are, and take action accordingly.

Morgan gapped down on Friday, coming off that DOUBLE failure: at the gap, and then at the bottom of the Bear Flag.

Friday morning's Gap Down also was a neckline break of a H&S Top in the intraday chart, which put a downside target of 19.42 IN PLAY.

Math for the target:

22.92 - High of the pattern
21.18 - Where the neckline was when the high was put in

22.92-21.18 = 1.74 points of downside from the neckline break, at 21.16

21.16 - 1.74 = Target: 19.42 IN PLAY

After the gap down, Morgan attempted a rally, which was pitiful. It had another pattern breakdown, a failed retest of that breakdown (at the arrow), then the 19.42 target got MADE. The low on the session was 19.36, within six cents of the target.

While we can't expect exactitude from technical analysis, I'd have to say that over the past three sessions in Morgan Stanley, The Bears executed with near-surgical precision.

For that performance, The Bears' scores for Technical Merit:

10...10...10...10...10...10...11

Judge #7 TRULY appreciates a great technical performance. LOL.

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