Tuesday, March 3, 2009

NASDAQ, XOM, And GS


The NASDAQ final Bear Flag target of 1340.14 got MADE at 11:51AM yesterday. The Bear Flag formed over 15 days. The target got MADE in 10 days, or 66% of the time that it took for the pattern to form. If achieving the target takes longer than 61.8% of the time that it took for the pattern to form, I begin to get concerned. This target got MADE right in the ballpark.

XOM's Symmetrical Triangle target of 65.64 got MADE yesterday. Notice that once the patterns in the chart and the validated trendline were resolved to the downside, the target got MADE very quickly. I like that.

GS had a big gap down at the open yesterday, from 91.08 to 87.86. Technically, it broke the 87.30-87.50 neckline in the Hourly chart that we discussed at the weekend, but Goldman held at 87.30 exactly , then rallied.

On that kind of gap down, I like to short a 50% or 61.8% retracement of the gap, or even wait to short near a complete gap fill, if I think that I can get it. On this trade, knowing how strong GS has been, I went with the 61.8% retracement of 89.85, and put my order in to short Goldman a little below that, at 89.79. I got filled. Goldman put in a high of 90.21, not far above my short entry.

Goldman put in a Symmetrical Triangle in the 1-Minute chart and broke below it, putting a target of 87.41 IN PLAY, just above near-term 87.30 support. I covered half my short when 87.41 got MADE, to defend against that support holding, and a rally from there. We know that Goldman is "The Stock That Refuses To Die!" LOL.

87.30 support broke right after I covered half of the position, which also confirmed the neckline break of the H&S Top (neckline is 87.30-87.50). Going into the noon hour, the NASDAQ was honing in on its 1340.14 final Bear Flag target. Although Goldman isn't a NASDAQ stock, the general market often bounces when a target like that gets MADE, which it did, at 11:51AM. I decided to cover the remainder of my Goldman short right there, at 86.25, and although Goldman quickly sold off for another few minutes, that 5-Minute bar was the low of the day in Goldman.

Gain: Just under $5,900.

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